PolyBrief Topic
Global Temperature Records 2026
January 27, 2026 · 1 developments
Background
Predictions on whether 2026 will set new global temperature records. Events: Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Public Interest Questions
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Briefing
Early 2026 climate data and forecasts are painting a complex picture for where the year will ultimately rank among the hottest on record, with ENSO dynamics emerging as the decisive variable. January 2026 proved to be one of the most meteorologically volatile months in recent history, characterized by simultaneous cold waves driven by a weakened polar vortex and sharp heat spikes in multiple regions — a pattern that complicates straightforward temperature trend assessments for the year's opening months.
Significant heat events have already been recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. Argentina and Australia experienced record-breaking temperatures and wildfires in early 2026, consistent with the broader trajectory of anthropogenic climate change. These regional extremes, while notable, reflect localized conditions and do not by themselves determine the global annual mean temperature that will ultimately determine 2026's ranking in NASA's Land-Ocean Temperature Index.
The most consequential factor now being tracked by scientists is the evolution of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). NOAA has warned that El Niño could return as early as June 2026, a development that would substantially amplify global heat and could position 2026 as a contender for the top of the temperature record. The years 2023 and 2024 both benefited from strong El Niño forcing, with 2024 ranking as the hottest year on record. If a new El Niño materializes mid-year as projected, 2026 could challenge or surpass that benchmark. However, the current ENSO state remains a key uncertainty — a prolonged neutral phase or La Niña persistence through the second half of the year would likely keep 2026 from reaching the very top of the rankings.
The overall direction of evidence suggests 2026 is unlikely to rank outside the top several hottest years given the long-term greenhouse gas forcing baseline, but whether it claims the number one position depends heavily on whether El Niño develops on the timeline NOAA has indicated. The coming months — particularly the ENSO status assessments through spring and early summer 2026 — will be critical in narrowing the range of likely outcomes for the year's final temperature ranking.
Evidence (3 stories)
January 2026 Marked by Unprecedented Weather Extremes Across the GlobeJan 27 · 2 news events · 14 articles
Southern Hemisphere Faces Record Heat and Wildfires at Start of 2026Feb 11 · 1 news events · 9 articles
Briefing
This briefing summarizes the most important developments in the timeline below so you can understand the state of the topic group at a glance.
Timeline
Extreme Weather and ENSO Shifts Shape Early 2026 Climate Outlook
January and February 2026 brought record heat, cold extremes, and wildfires globally, as scientists track ENSO dynamics that could determine whether 2026 sets a new temperature record.
41 articles
Extreme Weather and ENSO Shifts Shape Early 2026 Climate Outlook
January and February 2026 brought record heat, cold extremes, and wildfires globally, as scientists track ENSO dynamics that could determine whether 2026 sets a new temperature record.
January 2026 was marked by simultaneous cold waves and heat spikes driven by a weakened polar vortex, making it one of the most volatile months in recent climate history. Southern Hemisphere nations including Argentina and Australia experienced record-breaking heat and wildfires in early 2026, consistent with ongoing climate change trends. Researchers and forecasters are closely monitoring the interplay between El Niño, La Niña, and long-term greenhouse gas forcing as key drivers of global temperature outcomes for the year. NOAA has warned that El Niño could return as early as June 2026, which would significantly amplify heat extremes and could push 2026 toward a new annual temperature record. The ENSO trajectory over the coming months is now considered one of the most consequential variables in determining where 2026 ultimately ranks among the hottest years ever recorded.
Jan 27 – Feb 21, 2026
Underlying stories (3)