PolyBrief Topic
Jan 24 – Feb 16, 2026 · 36 developments
News coverage is essential for tracking these fast-moving diplomatic, military, and political developments as the situation continues to evolve across multiple fronts.
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
The question of whether NATO and Russian military forces will engage in a direct military encounter through December 31, 2025 remains unresolved, and the news developments available — all dating from early 2026 — do not report any such qualifying incident having occurred during the specified window. No credible reporting in the timeline describes a direct exchange of fire, missile strikes, or other qualifying use of force between NATO and Russian military personnel during the September 23–December 31, 2025 period.
That said, the broader strategic environment through early 2026 reflects persistently elevated tensions. Russia has been building military infrastructure near its border with Finland, a NATO member, while Russian State Duma Speaker Volodin called for use of "weapons of retribution" against Ukraine in late January to February 2026. Norway stated it cannot rule out a Russian invasion, and the UK doubled its troop presence in Norway and launched a major Arctic exercise called "Lion Protector" in response to Russian activity in the High North. These developments illustrate a pattern of military posturing and rhetorical escalation, though none crossed into direct NATO-Russia armed engagement.
On the diplomatic side, signals are mixed but suggest both sides retain some interest in avoiding direct confrontation. The US and Russia agreed in early February 2026 to resume high-level military-to-military dialogue on the sidelines of Abu Dhabi peace talks, and discussions on extending the New START nuclear arms treaty were reported. The Munich Security Conference in mid-February 2026 exposed deep transatlantic divisions over Ukraine policy, but also featured reaffirmations of NATO commitment from Secretary of State Rubio during visits to Slovakia and Hungary.
The key uncertainty is the absence of direct reporting on the September 23–December 31, 2025 period itself. The available news covers a later timeframe and does not reference any qualifying incident retroactively, which is a meaningful signal, though not conclusive. The overall trajectory — characterized by proxy conflict in Ukraine, intensified military posturing near NATO borders, and parallel diplomatic engagement — suggests both sides have continued to manage escalation risks, even as the structural conditions for miscalculation remain present.
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Putin out as President of Russia by end of 2026?
As of late February 2026, there are no credible reports indicating that Vladimir Putin faces any imminent threat to his hold on power. The news timeline covering January through February 2026 focuses heavily on peace negotiation dynamics and Zelenskyy's political vulnerabilities, with Putin appearing firmly entrenched in the Kremlin. Russia's parliamentary elections are scheduled for September 2026, but these are not expected to produce any meaningful challenge to Putin's authority, as they will be watched primarily for signs of fracturing within the ruling establishment rather than as a genuine contest for power.
The economic pressures on Russia are real and documented. Reports from early February 2026 indicate that Russia's actual inflation rate significantly exceeds official figures, food prices are rising sharply, and oil and gas export revenues are declining. Analysts have noted that the war's social and economic toll on ordinary Russians is growing. However, the Institute for the Study of War assessed that Putin himself believes Russia's economy can sustain a prolonged conflict, and there is no reporting of elite defection, military dissatisfaction directed at Putin personally, or organized internal opposition capable of threatening his position.
If anything, the news cycle from this period reflects Putin operating from a position of relative confidence. Russian intelligence services remain active in offensive operations abroad, including a foiled assassination plot against Zelenskyy reported in February 2026. Russia's foreign minister Lavrov publicly stated that Moscow has "no deadline" for ending the conflict, only objectives it is pursuing — language consistent with a leadership that feels no internal pressure to change course. Multiple intelligence assessments concluded that Russia is using peace negotiations as a stalling and manipulation tactic, suggesting Putin sees no urgency to make concessions or alter his strategic posture.
The key uncertainty remains the longer-term trajectory of Russia's economic strain and elite cohesion, neither of which is currently generating visible pressure on Putin's position. There is no reporting of coup preparations, health crises, or significant internal dissent directed at Putin himself — in contrast to the more detailed reporting on Zelenskyy's political vulnerabilities, including coup warnings and approval rating declines. Based on available reporting through late February 2026, the conditions that would typically precede a leadership change in Russia are not in evidence.
Russia nuclear test by...?
As of late February 2026, there is no credible reporting indicating that Russia has conducted or is imminently planning a nuclear test. The relevant developments center on escalating nuclear rhetoric, ongoing arms control diplomacy, and heightened European concern about Russia's nuclear posture — none of which constitute or directly foreshadow an actual detonation.
On the rhetorical front, Russian State Duma Speaker Volodin called in late January to early February 2026 for the use of "weapons of retribution" against Ukraine, language widely interpreted as a reference to nuclear or advanced strategic weapons. Zelenskyy publicly framed such rhetoric as a signal of Russian battlefield frustration rather than genuine intent, a characterization echoed by analysts who continued to assess the probability of a Russian nuclear test as low but non-trivial. Former President Medvedev also issued new threats during this period, consistent with a pattern of nuclear signaling that has persisted since the 2022 invasion without resulting in any weapons use.
Counterbalancing the escalatory rhetoric, diplomatic channels on nuclear issues showed modest activity. On the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi talks in early February 2026, the US and Russia agreed to resume high-level military-to-military dialogue and discussed possible extension of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia would continue to observe its moratorium on violating New START limits as long as the US reciprocated — a signal that Moscow, at least publicly, is framing its nuclear posture within an arms control framework rather than outside it.
European leaders nonetheless intensified debates over nuclear deterrence throughout February 2026, with reports suggesting Putin may deploy nuclear weapons closer to EU borders and concerns raised about Russian military infrastructure being built near Finland. These developments reflect genuine alarm about Russia's strategic intentions, but remain distinct from any evidence of test preparations. Key uncertainties include the opacity of Russia's nuclear decision-making, the potential for miscalculation amid broader NATO-Russia tensions, and whether the resumption of US-Russia military dialogue will meaningfully constrain Russian nuclear signaling. The overall trajectory of available evidence points toward continued rhetorical escalation and posturing rather than movement toward an actual nuclear detonation.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Diplomatic activity around the Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified since late January 2026, but fundamental obstacles to a formal ceasefire by June 30, 2026 remain deeply entrenched. Trilateral talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine have been held in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, producing limited but notable outcomes: a prisoner-of-war exchange of 314 soldiers was agreed at the Abu Dhabi round (February 2026), and both sides acknowledged progress on military dialogue. However, the Geneva round was described by Zelenskyy as "difficult and tense," with Russia accused of stalling, and media reports characterized the negotiations as having reached an impasse. Russia launched a massive attack of 420 drones and 39 missiles on the eve of the Geneva talks, and separately broke its commitment to pause strikes on energy infrastructure despite a direct request from Trump — signals that analysts and intelligence assessments interpret as evidence of bad faith.
The core territorial dispute, particularly over Donetsk, remains unresolved and appears to be the central obstacle. Secretary of State Rubio identified Donetsk as the single most critical remaining issue, while Zelenskyy has repeatedly and firmly ruled out ceding Donbas, demanding 20–30 year security guarantees as a precondition for any agreement. Zelenskyy publicly stated in mid-February that both the US and Russia are telling Ukraine to withdraw from Donbas — framing Washington and Moscow as aligned against Kyiv on the key demand — and acknowledged that Trump is "not his ally." This sharp deterioration in US-Ukraine relations complicates the diplomatic architecture needed for a durable ceasefire agreement.
Multiple intelligence assessments concluded that Russia has no genuine intention of ending the war and is using peace talks to buy time and manage its relationship with the Trump administration. Lavrov stated Russia has "no deadline" for ending the conflict. Meanwhile, plans for a post-ceasefire peacekeeping force stalled after allies acknowledged any deployment would require Putin's approval — underscoring how far the parties remain from translating diplomatic frameworks into concrete arrangements. European intelligence chiefs expressed pessimism at the Munich Security Conference about the likelihood of a peace agreement in 2026. Zelenskyy himself told his ministers to prepare for up to three more years of war, even as he publicly stated the conflict could end by summer if Russia showed genuine willingness.
The next trilateral round was scheduled for March 4–5 in Abu Dhabi, described as potentially decisive, though reports indicated Russia may withdraw from the process entirely. The trajectory as of late February 2026 points toward continued negotiations under significant US pressure, but with Russia showing few signs of genuine compromise and Ukraine unwilling to accept the territorial concessions being demanded — making a formal, general ceasefire agreement before June 30, 2026 a highly uncertain prospect.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Diplomatic activity around a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire has intensified since late January 2026, but fundamental obstacles remain firmly in place as of late February, making a general ceasefire agreement by March 31 highly uncertain. Trilateral talks have progressed through multiple rounds — Abu Dhabi in early February, Geneva in mid-February, and a further round scheduled for March 4–5 in Abu Dhabi — producing limited but notable results, including a 314-prisoner exchange and agreements to resume US-Russia military dialogue. However, the core political disputes, particularly over the status of Donetsk, remain unresolved. Secretary of State Rubio identified Donetsk as the single most critical sticking point, while the Kremlin rejected US characterizations that only one issue remained, signaling broader demands that extend well beyond territory.
Russia's conduct during the negotiating period has raised serious doubts about its commitment to any agreement. Despite initially accepting a US request to pause strikes on Kyiv, Russia subsequently ignored Trump's broader energy ceasefire initiative, launching large-scale attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure across eight regions in late January and early February. Intelligence assessments, including from ISW, concluded that Russia is exploiting peace talks to buy time and manipulate the Trump administration, with no genuine intention of ending the war. Lavrov stated explicitly that Russia has "no deadline" for ending the conflict. Reports ahead of the March round also indicated Russia may withdraw from negotiations entirely.
Ukraine's position has hardened in parallel. Zelenskyy repeatedly ruled out ceding Donbas, demanded 20–30 year security guarantees, and by late February publicly stated that both the US and Russia are telling Ukraine to withdraw from Donbas — framing Washington and Moscow as aligned against Kyiv on the central territorial question. This sharp deterioration in US-Ukraine relations, combined with stalled peacekeeping force plans that require Putin's approval to proceed, further complicates any path to a comprehensive ceasefire. Zelenskyy himself told his ministers to prepare for up to three more years of war, even as he expressed cautious public optimism that the conflict could end by summer if Russia showed genuine willingness.
Trump set a goal of ending the war within a month during a February 25 phone call with Zelenskyy, and US pressure on Kyiv to make concessions has visibly intensified. However, the gap between the parties on territorial, political, and security questions remains vast, Russia's battlefield behavior contradicts its diplomatic posture, and European intelligence chiefs expressed pessimism at the Munich Security Conference in mid-February about any 2026 agreement. The March Abu Dhabi round will be a critical indicator of whether negotiations can move from process to substance within the resolution window.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Diplomatic activity around the Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified since late January 2026, with multiple rounds of trilateral talks held in Abu Dhabi and Geneva, and a next round scheduled for March 4–5 in Abu Dhabi. The talks have produced limited but tangible results: a prisoner-of-war exchange agreement returning 157 Ukrainians from Russian captivity was reached at Abu Dhabi, and both sides agreed on a ceasefire monitoring mechanism in principle. However, the core political issues — particularly the fate of Donetsk — remain entirely unresolved, with Russia and Ukraine holding diametrically opposed positions on territorial questions.
The prospects for a formal ceasefire agreement by end of 2026 face serious structural obstacles. Russia has repeatedly demonstrated bad faith during negotiations: it broke a commitment to pause strikes on energy infrastructure following a direct request from Trump, launched a massive 420-drone-and-missile attack on the eve of the Geneva talks, and has stated through Foreign Minister Lavrov that it has "no deadline" for ending the conflict. Multiple intelligence assessments concluded that Russia is using peace talks primarily to buy time and manipulate the Trump administration, with no genuine intention of ending the war. Meanwhile, Ukraine's position has hardened: Zelenskyy has firmly ruled out ceding Donbas, demanded 20–30 year security guarantees, and warned Ukrainians would not forgive the US for forcing one-sided concessions. As of late February, Zelenskyy publicly stated that both the US and Russia are telling Ukraine to withdraw from Donbas — signaling a sharp deterioration in US-Ukraine relations that complicates any trilateral framework.
The diplomatic environment is further complicated by several unresolved secondary issues. Plans for a "Coalition of the Willing" peacekeeping force stalled after allies acknowledged any deployment would require Putin's approval. The venue for a direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting remains contested, with Moscow insisting on Moscow and Kyiv insisting on Kyiv. European intelligence chiefs expressed pessimism at the Munich Security Conference in February about the likelihood of a peace agreement in 2026, and reports emerged that Russia may withdraw from the March round of talks entirely. Zelenskyy himself told his ministers to prepare for up to three more years of conflict, even while publicly expressing cautious optimism that the war could end by summer if Russia showed genuine willingness.
The overall trajectory as of late February 2026 points toward continued diplomatic engagement without a breakthrough. The gap between the parties on core territorial and security issues remains vast, Russia's negotiating behavior suggests deliberate stalling, and the US-Ukraine relationship has deteriorated in ways that reduce Washington's ability to present a unified front. While the March Abu Dhabi round represents a potential inflection point, the conditions for a formal, mutually agreed ceasefire — as required by the resolution criteria — do not appear to be in place.
Russian strike on a NATO member by...?
The question of whether Russia would conduct a direct drone, missile, or air strike on NATO sovereign territory between September 24 and October 31, 2025 remains unresolved based on available reporting, which covers a later period (late January through February 2026). No credible reporting in the available timeline documents a qualifying Russian strike on NATO territory during the specified window or in the months immediately following it.
The broader trajectory of NATO-Russia tensions, however, has continued to intensify. As of February 2026, Russia was reported to be building military infrastructure near its border with Finland, a NATO member, while former President Medvedev issued new threats against Western nations. Norway stated it cannot rule out a Russian invasion, and the UK doubled its troop presence in Norway and launched a major Arctic exercise ("Lion Protector") in response to perceived threats in the High North. These developments reflect a sustained pattern of Russian pressure on NATO's eastern and northern flanks, though none constitute a direct strike on alliance territory.
Diplomatic signals present a mixed picture. On one hand, the US and Russia agreed in early February 2026 to resume high-level military-to-military dialogue and discussed extending the New START treaty, suggesting some channels for de-escalation remain open. On the other hand, Russian State Duma Speaker Volodin's calls for "weapons of retribution" and continued nuclear rhetoric from Moscow indicate that escalatory pressure has not abated. Zelenskyy characterized such nuclear threats as a sign of Russian battlefield failures rather than genuine intent, while European leaders debated autonomous nuclear deterrence options.
Key uncertainties include the degree to which ongoing peace negotiations — including discussions at Abu Dhabi and the Munich Security Conference — constrain Russian escalatory behavior, and whether Russia's military buildup near Finland or Belarus represents preparation for broader action or a coercive posture short of direct attack. The transatlantic rift exposed at Munich, with the US and Europe divided over Ukraine policy, could also affect NATO's deterrence credibility. No available reporting confirms a qualifying strike on NATO territory within the market's resolution window.
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Recent developments through late February 2026 make Ukraine's NATO membership before the end of 2026 appear highly unlikely. The clearest signal came from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's visit to Kyiv in early-to-mid February, during which Zelenskyy himself acknowledged that the United States does not currently support Ukraine's accession to NATO. Without US backing, the consensus required for NATO membership — which demands unanimous agreement among all 32 member states — cannot be achieved. Rutte's discussions in Kyiv focused not on a membership timeline but on post-ceasefire security arrangements, including plans for willing NATO members to deploy forces, aircraft, and naval assets to Ukraine after a peace agreement is reached. This framing suggests the alliance views membership as a longer-term prospect, not an imminent one.
The broader diplomatic environment further dims near-term accession prospects. The Munich Security Conference (February 9–18) exposed a significant transatlantic rift, with the US and Europe divided over Ukraine policy and the shape of any peace settlement. Secretary of State Rubio cancelled a meeting with European leaders and declined to discuss Ukraine with them directly, underscoring Washington's detached posture. Zelenskyy separately revealed an alleged secret NATO-Russia document being discussed by US and European officials without Ukraine's full involvement — a development that signals Ukraine may be sidelined in key negotiations rather than integrated into the alliance.
Escalating NATO-Russia tensions add another layer of complexity. Russia has been building military infrastructure near Finland's border, and ISW assessed in early February that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and could use it as a future invasion platform. European leaders have intensified debates over nuclear deterrence and autonomous defense capabilities, reflecting anxiety about the alliance's cohesion rather than confidence in its expansion. These dynamics suggest NATO's immediate priority is managing existing vulnerabilities, not absorbing a new member actively at war with a nuclear-armed adversary.
In sum, the combination of explicit US opposition to Ukraine's near-term accession, the absence of any formal membership invitation or accession protocol, ongoing conflict, and deep transatlantic divisions all point strongly against Ukraine achieving full NATO membership by December 31, 2026. No credible pathway to membership within this timeframe has emerged from recent reporting.
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?
As of late February 2026, Ukraine has not officially agreed to any US-backed ceasefire framework, and the diplomatic trajectory suggests significant obstacles remain before such an agreement could be formalized. Trilateral talks between the US, Ukraine, and Russia have proceeded through multiple rounds — in Abu Dhabi (early February) and Geneva (mid-to-late February) — but have produced only limited procedural progress, including a prisoner-of-war exchange and agreements to resume military-to-military dialogue, rather than any substantive peace framework. The next major round is scheduled for March 4–5 in Abu Dhabi, described by participants as potentially decisive.
The core barrier to a qualifying agreement is the fundamental divergence between what the US and Russia are demanding and what Ukraine is willing to accept. Zelenskyy has repeatedly and publicly rejected any withdrawal from Donbas, demanded security guarantees of 20–30 years, and — in a striking statement in mid-to-late February — acknowledged that both the United States and Russia are effectively telling Ukraine to cede Donbas as a condition for ending the war. He explicitly stated that Trump is "not his ally," reflecting a sharp deterioration in US-Ukraine relations. These positions are far from the formal alignment that would be required for Ukraine to officially endorse a US-backed framework through a signed instrument, joint communiqué, or governmental decree.
Russia's posture further complicates the path to resolution. Multiple intelligence assessments concluded that Moscow is using peace talks primarily as a stalling and manipulation tool, with no genuine intention of ending the war. Russia broke its commitment to halt strikes on energy infrastructure despite a direct request from Trump, launched massive attacks on the eve of the Geneva talks, and the Kremlin rejected US characterizations of progress. Reports also indicated Russia may withdraw from the March round entirely. Meanwhile, peacekeeping force plans stalled after allies acknowledged any deployment would require Putin's approval — underscoring how far the parties remain from a workable framework.
The key uncertainties heading into March center on whether the Abu Dhabi round produces a breakthrough or collapses, whether US pressure on Zelenskyy intensifies to the point of forcing a formal Ukrainian position shift, and whether Russia engages substantively or continues to stall. Zelenskyy has simultaneously expressed cautious optimism that the war could end by summer 2026 and instructed ministers to prepare for three more years of conflict — a dual-track posture that reflects the deep unpredictability of the current moment. The resolution deadline of December 31, 2025 has already passed in calendar terms relative to the news timeline, meaning events are now being assessed against a backdrop where no qualifying agreement was reached by that date.
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
As of late February 2026, Ukraine has shown no indication of formally recognizing Russian sovereignty over any of its UN-recognized territory, and the trajectory of negotiations makes such a recognition unlikely before December 31, 2025 — a threshold that has already passed without any qualifying agreement being reached.
Throughout the period covered, President Zelenskyy has consistently and emphatically rejected any formal cession of Ukrainian territory. At the Munich Security Conference in mid-February 2026, he explicitly rejected any withdrawal from Donbas while demanding 20-year security guarantees. He has repeatedly stated that Ukraine "cannot simply hand Donbas to Russia," framed the territorial question as one of sovereignty, and warned that Ukrainians would not forgive the United States for forcing one-sided concessions. Zelenskyy also publicly stated that both the US and Russia are pressuring Ukraine to withdraw from Donbas — framing this as an unacceptable alignment of demands — and said he would rather continue fighting than accept a bad peace.
The multilateral negotiating process — spanning Abu Dhabi (early February 2026) and Geneva (mid-to-late February 2026) — has produced limited results: a prisoner-of-war exchange, agreements on military dialogue, and a ceasefire monitoring mechanism framework. However, core political issues, particularly the status of Donetsk, remain entirely unresolved. Secretary of State Rubio identified Donetsk as the single most critical sticking point, while the Kremlin rejected US characterizations that only one issue remained, signaling broader demands. Multiple intelligence assessments concluded that Russia has no genuine intention of ending the war and is using negotiations to buy time, further reducing the prospect of any agreement that would require Ukraine to formally recognize Russian sovereignty.
Key uncertainties include the degree of US pressure on Kyiv: reports indicate Washington has been pushing Ukraine to withdraw forces from Donbas, and Trump told Zelenskyy in a February 25 phone call that he wants the war ended within a month, with the next trilateral round set for early March in Abu Dhabi. Whether intensified US pressure could eventually compel a Ukrainian concession on formal sovereignty recognition remains the central open question. However, Zelenskyy's public posture, domestic political constraints, and the absence of any security guarantees acceptable to Kyiv make a formal sovereignty recognition agreement in the near term appear highly unlikely based on available evidence.
This briefing summarizes the most important developments in the timeline below so you can understand the state of the topic group at a glance.
Four years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the conflict has entered a paradoxical phase: diplomatic activity is at its most intense since the war began, yet the fighting continues unabated and the gap between the parties' core positions remains as wide as ever. The period from late January through late February 2026 has been defined by a flurry of multilateral negotiations — in Abu Dhabi, Geneva, and Munich — alongside some of the heaviest Russian aerial bombardment of the war and a significant Ukrainian battlefield counteroffensive. The result is a situation in which peace talks and escalation are advancing simultaneously, with no clear trajectory toward resolution.
The diplomatic landscape is being shaped primarily by the United States, which has assumed the role of chief broker while generating friction with both sides. Washington pushed for a one-week energy ceasefire, which Russia initially appeared to accept before launching massive strikes on Ukrainian energy and rail infrastructure across eight regions — a pattern Zelenskyy described as a deliberate rejection of Trump's initiative. The Abu Dhabi trilateral talks in mid-February produced a prisoner exchange of 314 soldiers and an agreement to resume US-Russia military-to-military dialogue, including preliminary discussions on extending the New START nuclear arms treaty. The subsequent Geneva round was described by Zelenskyy as productive on military issues but "difficult and tense" overall, with political questions — above all the fate of Donetsk — remaining entirely unresolved. Secretary of State Rubio identified the roughly one-fifth of Donetsk not yet under Russian control as the central sticking point, while the Kremlin rejected the framing that only one issue remained, signaling far broader demands. Multiple intelligence assessments concluded that Russia is using the talks primarily to buy time and manipulate the Trump administration, with Lavrov stating publicly that Moscow has "no deadline" for ending the conflict. The next decisive round is scheduled for early March in Abu Dhabi, though reports have emerged that Russia may withdraw from the process entirely.
The US-Ukraine relationship has deteriorated sharply during this period, representing one of the most significant political developments of the past month. Zelenskyy publicly acknowledged that Trump is not his ally, and stated that both Washington and Moscow are effectively telling Ukraine to withdraw from Donbas — framing the two sides as aligned on the war's central territorial question. Trump told Zelenskyy in a February 25 phone call that he wants the war ended within a month, and reports indicated Washington was simultaneously exploring the possibility of simultaneous Ukrainian elections and a referendum as early as May. Zelenskyy has firmly rejected any cession of Donbas, demanded security guarantees of 20 to 30 years — against a US offer of 15 — and warned that Ukrainians would not forgive Washington for forcing one-sided concessions. The Munich Security Conference in mid-February laid bare the broader transatlantic rift, with Rubio canceling meetings with European leaders and German Chancellor Merz warning that the rules-based international order has effectively collapsed. European intelligence chiefs expressed deep pessimism about the likelihood of a peace agreement in 2026.
Zelenskyy publicly stated Trump is not his ally and that both the US and Russia are telling Ukraine to withdraw from Donbas, reflecting a sharp deterioration in US-Ukraine relations.
Zelenskyy acknowledged that Donald Trump is not his ally in the conflict with Russia, reflecting growing tensions in the US-Ukraine relationship. He stated that both the United States and Russia are telling Ukraine that if it wants the war to end, Ukrainian forces must withdraw from Donbas — framing the two sides as aligned on this key demand. Zelenskyy publicly accused Trump of exerting unjustified pressure on Ukraine, saying the pressure included demands Ukraine considers one-sided. Reports indicated Washington was pressuring Kyiv to withdraw forces from Donbas, with Zelenskyy reportedly seeking to avoid this escalating into a formal ultimatum. Secretary of State Rubio also stated that Trump does not understand why Ukraine and Russia cannot end the war.
February 16 – 28, 2026
Underlying stories (4)
Ukrainian sources revealed that Washington is pressuring Kyiv to withdraw its troops from Donbas, with Zelenskyy reportedly seeking to avoid this demand escalating into a formal ultimatum.
News events (5)
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly accused US President Donald Trump of exerting unjustified pressure on Ukraine in his efforts to broker an end to the nearly four-year war. Zelenskyy indicated that the pressure included demands Ukraine considers one-sided.
News events (1)
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged that Donald Trump is not his ally in the conflict with Russia, reflecting growing tensions in the US-Ukraine relationship. Secretary of State Rubio also stated that Trump does not understand why Ukraine and Russia cannot end the war.
News events (6)
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that both the United States and Russia are telling Ukraine that if it wants the war to end tomorrow, Ukrainian forces must withdraw from Donbas, framing the two sides as aligned on this key demand.
News events (1)
Ukrainian forces recaptured 201 square kilometers between February 11–15, the largest territorial gain in approximately two and a half years, linked in part to Starlink disruption of Russian forces.
Ukrainian forces recaptured 201 square kilometers of territory from Russian forces between February 11–15, 2026, marking the largest Ukrainian advance in approximately two and a half years. Analysts linked the gains in part to the disruption of Starlink access for Russian forces, which degraded their drone streaming and coordination capabilities. The advance came as Russia continued to press offensives on other axes, including near Pokrovsk and in Donetsk. Zelenskyy stated that the war outcome remains uncertain but that Ukraine is not losing. The territorial gains provided Kyiv with additional leverage heading into the next round of peace negotiations.
February 13 – 20, 2026
Underlying stories (2)
The Munich Security Conference exposed deep divisions between the US and Europe over Ukraine policy, NATO commitments, and the shape of any peace settlement.
The Munich Security Conference convened amid what analysts described as a fundamental rupture in US-Europe relations, one year after Vance's controversial speech. Rubio's address drew mixed reactions, with some relieved by reaffirmations of alliance commitment while others called it a 'poisoned declaration of love'; Rubio also cancelled a meeting with European leaders and declined to discuss Ukraine with them. German Chancellor Merz warned that the rules-based international order has collapsed and the gap between Europe and the US has deepened. EU foreign policy chief Kallas rejected American 'Euro-bashing,' while Vance demanded more European defense spending. Zelenskyy addressed the conference, called Putin a 'slave of war,' received a major award, and rejected any withdrawal from Donbas while demanding 20-year security guarantees.
February 9 – 18, 2026
Underlying stories (10)
Trump's newly established Peace Council held its first meeting on February 19, with the next trilateral round scheduled for early March in Abu Dhabi amid signals Russia may withdraw.
US President Trump's newly established Peace Council held its inaugural meeting on February 19, 2026, as part of broader US-led diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire. European states were divided over whether an EU official should attend. The next round of trilateral talks was scheduled for March 4–5 in Abu Dhabi, described as potentially decisive for reaching a peace agreement. Reports indicated Russia may pull out of peace negotiations ahead of the March round. Zelenskyy confirmed the upcoming trilateral round and called for increased pressure on Moscow, while also announcing a new round of negotiations with Russia and the US.
February 7 – 28, 2026
Underlying stories (4)
Multiple intelligence assessments and analyst reports concluded Russia has no genuine intention of ending the war and is using peace talks to buy time and manipulate the Trump administration.
An intelligence report assessed that Russia is exploiting peace negotiations as a tool for manipulation and to restore relations with the United States, while having no genuine intention of ending the war. ISW assessed that Putin believes Russia's economy can withstand a long war and is using peace talk overtures to distract the Trump administration. An Associated Press report cited Russian officials as believing they can outmaneuver the United States during talks. Lavrov stated that Russia has 'no deadline' for ending the conflict, only objectives it is fulfilling. ISW also assessed that Russia's strategic goal is to transform Ukraine into a puppet state similar to Belarus, and that Moscow is seeking to prevent the US and Europe from agreeing to security guarantees for Ukraine.
February 6 – 26, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
US Secretary of State Rubio traveled to Bratislava and Budapest, meeting with Fico and Orbán while reaffirming Washington's commitment to NATO and European partnership.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to Slovakia and Hungary, meeting with Prime Ministers Fico and Orbán. Rubio emphasized that the US does not want Europe to be a 'vassal' and reaffirmed Washington's commitment to NATO membership. The visits came amid broader transatlantic tensions over European defense spending and Ukraine policy. Separately, Rubio stated at Munich that the US does not know whether Russia is serious about ending the war and that Washington will only negotiate under fair conditions for Ukraine. Rubio also announced the US will approach negotiations on a new offensive arms reduction treaty from a position of strength.
February 6 – 15, 2026
Underlying stories (2)
The US and Russia agreed to resume high-level military dialogue at Abu Dhabi and discussed extending New START, with Lavrov saying Russia will observe treaty limits as long as the US does.
On the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi peace talks, the United States and Russia agreed to resume high-level military-to-military dialogue and discussed the possible extension of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia will continue to observe its moratorium on violating New START limits as long as the United States does the same. Secretary of State Rubio announced the US will approach negotiations on a new offensive arms reduction treaty from a position of strength. The resumption of military dialogue represented a notable development amid otherwise difficult negotiations. European leaders separately debated nuclear deterrence options amid concerns about Russia's nuclear posture and potential deployment of weapons closer to EU borders.
February 5 – 11, 2026
Underlying stories (3)
Zelenskyy's legitimacy, approval ratings, and political standing faced growing scrutiny as peace negotiations intensified, with polls showing he could lose hypothetical elections to rivals.
A poll found that parties associated with former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi, former President Poroshenko, and intelligence chief Budanov would outperform Zelenskyy's party in hypothetical elections. A separate survey showed 61% of Ukrainians trust Zelenskyy, while the Financial Times reported that the arrest of former Energy Minister Galushchenko had weakened his political standing. Reports emerged of a split within Ukraine's negotiating delegation between a 'Budanov group' and an 'Yermak wing,' which Zelenskyy denied as a Russian narrative. Former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi gave an interview claiming the 2023 counteroffensive failed due to Zelenskyy's interference with military decisions. Reports also warned of coup preparations against Zelenskyy as his position weakened under diplomatic and war pressures.
February 4 – 27, 2026
Underlying stories (9)
Ukraine disclosed mobilizing over 30,000 troops monthly, expanded military service eligibility to citizens over 60, and announced agreements for hundreds of Western fighter jets.
Zelenskyy disclosed that Ukraine is mobilizing more than 30,000 soldiers per month but acknowledged Russia's mobilization rate is higher. Ukraine expanded military service eligibility to citizens aged 60 and older, targeting specialists, veterans, and rear and technical roles. Zelenskyy announced agreements with international partners for the delivery of 150 Gripen and 100 Rafale combat aircraft to bolster air power. Ukraine also signed a joint drone production agreement with Poland and visited a Germany-Ukraine joint drone production facility where the first Linza 3.0 UAVs were produced. Zelenskyy disclosed that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in four years of war.
February 4 – 27, 2026
Underlying stories (6)
Xi Jinping and Putin held a video call praising bilateral ties, while German Chancellor Merz pressed China to increase pressure on Russia and US officials warned Beijing is fueling the war.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Putin held a nearly ninety-minute video call on February 4, praising their bilateral relationship as a stabilizing factor in world affairs. The call took place on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi peace talks. German Chancellor Merz, visiting Beijing, urged China to use its influence to help end the war, expressing confidence Beijing can exert meaningful pressure on Moscow. US officials separately warned that China is quietly supporting Russia's war effort despite Beijing's aid pledges to Ukraine. A report citing Japanese media revealed evidence that a Chinese state-owned enterprise exported a large-scale rocket ammunition production line to Belarus, Russia's close ally, potentially contradicting Beijing's stated neutrality.
February 4 – 26, 2026
Underlying stories (4)
Zelenskyy repeatedly called for a clear EU accession timeline for Ukraine, warning that without a firm membership guarantee Putin would continue to exploit uncertainty.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy addressed the European Parliament on the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion, expressing gratitude for EU financial support and calling Ukraine's EU membership critical. He met with European Parliament members calling for a clear accession timeline and warned that without a firm EU membership guarantee, Putin would continue to exploit uncertainty. German Defense Minister Pistorius stated that agreeing on a date for Ukraine's EU accession is a realistic prospect. Reports indicated Ukraine may be willing to accept territorial concessions in exchange for a fast-tracked path to EU membership. The EU Council approved the legal framework for a €90 billion financial assistance loan to Ukraine, though Hungary subsequently blocked disbursement.
February 4 – 25, 2026
Underlying stories (6)
Russian forces maintained offensive pressure near Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, and across Donetsk, with ISW assessing a spring offensive targeting full capture of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
ISW's assessments throughout February tracked sustained Russian offensive pressure across multiple frontline axes, with fighting near Pokrovsk intensifying and an entire Russian company reportedly wiped out during one attempted advance. ISW found no evidence of Ukrainian forces operating within Pokrovsk since late January 2025, suggesting Russian consolidation in the area. Ukrainian military experts assessed that Russian forces are concentrating resources for a spring offensive targeting full capture of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Reports indicated Putin is planning a new military offensive while US negotiating tactics shift. Russia's military losses exceeded 325,000 according to the Financial Times, with the sharp rise in casualties slowing the pace of advance.
February 4 – 24, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
Ukraine arrested ten suspects in a Russian-directed plot to assassinate senior officials, while Zelenskyy ordered a purge of the Security Service citing divided loyalties.
Ukraine announced the arrest of ten suspects in Ukraine and Moldova in connection with a Russian-directed plot to assassinate senior Ukrainian officials, with Russia allegedly offering bounties of up to $100,000 per target. CNN reported that Russian agents rented an apartment near the Ukrainian Presidential Office as part of a plot to eliminate Zelenskyy, describing his assassination as a key element of Russia's plan for full occupation of Ukraine. Zelenskyy ordered a purge of the Security Service of Ukraine, stating that those serving interests other than Ukraine's must be removed. He also appointed a new acting head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service. Russia has made several assassination attempts against Zelenskyy since the start of the full-scale invasion.
February 4 – 20, 2026
Underlying stories (4)
Reports indicated Russia's real inflation significantly exceeds official figures, oil revenues are declining, and the economic toll of the war on Russian citizens is growing substantially.
Reports indicated that Russia's real inflation rate significantly exceeds official Kremlin figures, with food prices rising sharply and authorities attempting to conceal the broader economic consequences of the war, Western sanctions, and poor policy decisions. Russia's oil and gas export revenues are under increasing pressure as the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion approached. An analysis found that the war's economic and social toll on Russian citizens has grown substantially, affecting everyday life across the country. ISW assessed that Putin believes Russia's economy can sustain a prolonged war, though analysts noted the sharp rise in military losses is slowing the pace of advance. Russia's parliamentary elections scheduled for September 2026 will be watched for signs of fracturing within the ruling establishment.
February 4 – 16, 2026
Underlying stories (3)
Plans to deploy a 'Coalition of the Willing' peacekeeping force in Ukraine stalled after allies acknowledged any deployment would require Vladimir Putin's approval.
Plans to deploy a peacekeeping force in Ukraine encountered a significant obstacle after allies acknowledged that any such deployment would require Vladimir Putin's approval, with a growing number of 'Coalition of the Willing' members expressing reservations. Zelenskyy had previously called for foreign troops to be positioned close to the front line in the event of a ceasefire. NATO Secretary General Rutte had outlined plans for NATO member states willing to send armed forces, aircraft, and naval support to Ukraine immediately after a peace agreement. The stalling of peacekeeping plans underscored the difficulty of translating diplomatic frameworks into concrete security arrangements acceptable to all parties. European intelligence chiefs remained skeptical that a peace agreement would be reached in 2026.
February 3 – 26, 2026
Underlying stories (2)
Several European leaders traveled to Kyiv on February 24 to mark four years of Russia's full-scale invasion, with commemorations held amid continued fighting and uncertain peace prospects.
Multiple prominent European leaders visited Kyiv on February 24 to mark the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, with events including a prayer service at Saint Sophia Cathedral. Zelenskyy used the occasion to reaffirm Ukraine's commitment to fighting for peace and justice. The European Parliament held an emergency session in Brussels, with all major political groups expressing support for Ukraine except the Europe of Sovereign Nations group. Zelenskyy addressed the European Parliament via video, expressing gratitude for EU financial support and calling for a clear EU accession timeline. Analysts noted that despite multiple diplomatic efforts, a durable peace settlement remains elusive four years into the conflict.
February 3 – 24, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
NATO Secretary General Rutte visited Kyiv, addressed the Ukrainian parliament, and outlined plans for NATO members to deploy forces, aircraft, and naval support after a peace agreement.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Kyiv and addressed the Ukrainian Rada, stating that reaching a peace agreement with Russia will require difficult decisions. Discussions included plans for NATO member states willing to send armed forces, aircraft, and naval support to Ukraine immediately after a peace agreement is reached. The visit came as the Kremlin had broken its promise to refrain from striking energy infrastructure. Zelenskyy separately stated that Ukraine has fulfilled all necessary requirements for NATO membership but acknowledged the United States does not currently support Ukraine's accession. Zelenskyy also revealed an alleged secret NATO-Russia document being discussed by US and European officials, raising concerns about negotiations conducted without Ukraine's full involvement.
February 3 – 19, 2026
Underlying stories (4)
European leaders debated nuclear deterrence, Arctic defense, and autonomous military capability as Russia built up forces near NATO borders and intercepted European satellite communications.
European leaders increasingly discussed nuclear deterrence options amid concerns about Russia's nuclear posture, with reports suggesting Putin may deploy nuclear weapons closer to the EU border. The UK doubled its troop presence in Norway and launched a major Arctic exercise called 'Lion Protector' to counter Russian threats in the High North. Norway stated it cannot rule out a Russian invasion. Russia was reported to be building military infrastructure near its border with Finland, a NATO member, while former President Medvedev issued new threats. Russia was also accused of intercepting communications from European satellites, a capability that has intensified since the invasion began.
February 2 – 23, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
Ukraine imposed new sanctions targeting Russia's shadow oil fleet, foreign suppliers of missile and drone components, and individuals supporting Russia's war economy.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy signed expanded sanctions targeting vessels used by Russia to transport oil and petroleum products from major Russian ports, noting Russia added over 120 vessels to its shadow oil fleet in 2025. Ukraine also announced sanctions targeting foreign companies that supply critical components used in Russian drones and missiles, aiming to disrupt Russia's ability to circumvent Western sanctions through third-party manufacturers. New sanctions were imposed against 29 Russian individuals and 15 organizations. Zelenskyy called on European governments to impose sanctions on Russia's nuclear energy sector, Rosatom, and Russian citizens living in Europe, arguing existing measures remain insufficient. Ukraine also called on the EU to halt cheap Russian energy imports, prompting Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán to declare Ukraine an enemy.
February 2 – 15, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
US officials acknowledged peace talks have proven harder than anticipated, while the Geneva round was described as productive on military issues but difficult overall, with Russia accused of stalling.
Vice President Vance acknowledged that peace talks have proven significantly more difficult than initially anticipated, while Witkoff and Kushner departed Geneva following the latest round. Zelenskyy described the Geneva talks as productive on military issues but 'difficult and tense' overall, accusing Russia of stalling. Ukrainian negotiator Umerov confirmed progress had been made but said details could not be disclosed. Media reports described the Geneva negotiations as having reached an impasse and becoming 'political theater,' with political issues — particularly regarding Donbas — remaining unresolved. Russia launched a massive attack involving 420 drones and 39 missiles against Ukraine on the eve of the Geneva talks, which Kyiv condemned as evidence of Moscow's lack of genuine commitment to peace.
February 1 – 25, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
Russia carried out repeated large-scale aerial attacks throughout February, firing hundreds of drones and missiles at Ukrainian energy, rail, and residential targets.
Russian forces attacked Ukraine with more than 2,000 drones, 1,200 guided aerial bombs, and 116 missiles in a single week in early February, according to Ukrainian officials. A subsequent attack on February 22 involved nearly 300 drones and 50 missiles targeting energy infrastructure, residential buildings, and rail lines. On the eve of the Geneva talks, Russia launched 420 drones and 39 missiles in an overnight attack. ISW assessed that Russia had shifted its targeting strategy to include railway and water supply infrastructure alongside energy systems, with an increased emphasis on sabotage operations. Ukraine condemned the strikes as evidence of Russia's lack of genuine commitment to peace negotiations.
February 1 – 24, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
ISW assessed that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and could use Belarusian territory to launch future military operations against Ukraine, as Zelenskyy warned of new joint military exercises.
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and could potentially use Belarusian territory to launch future military operations against Ukraine. Zelenskyy warned that Moscow and Minsk are again discussing joint military exercises on Belarusian territory, raising concerns about a potential new threat vector. Ukraine imposed sanctions against Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko, citing Belarus's continued support for Russia's war, and separately expanded sanctions to include Lukashenko's sons and inner circle. Poland accused Russia's FSB of cyberattacks targeting approximately 30 Polish renewable energy facilities. Zelenskyy stated that both Ukraine and Belarus should ultimately become EU members, though he acknowledged the choice belongs to Belarusians.
February 1 – 24, 2026
Underlying stories (4)
US envoy Steve Witkoff met Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Florida ahead of the Abu Dhabi trilateral talks, which produced a prisoner-of-war exchange and agreements on military dialogue.
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met Russian Presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Florida on January 31, describing the discussions as fruitful and constructive. Ukrainian, US, and Russian delegations then convened in Abu Dhabi for a new round of trilateral talks, with Ukraine's Umerov describing discussions as 'substantive and productive.' The talks produced an agreement to exchange 314 prisoners of war — the first such exchange in approximately five months — with 157 Ukrainians subsequently returned from Russian captivity. On the sidelines, the US and Russia agreed to resume high-level military-to-military dialogue and discussed the possible extension of the New START nuclear arms treaty. Zelenskyy described a dignified peace as realistic ahead of the talks and said Russia and Ukraine had reached a general agreement on a ceasefire monitoring mechanism.
Jan 31 – Feb 17, 2026
Underlying stories (6)
Zelenskyy repeatedly ruled out ceding Donbas, demanded 20–30 year security guarantees, and warned Ukrainians would not forgive the US for forcing one-sided concessions.
Zelenskyy firmly stated that Ukraine cannot simply hand Donbas to Russia, describing the issue as one of sovereignty and the fate of people living there. He demanded security guarantees of 20 to 30 years as a condition for peace, while the US was offering 15 years. Zelenskyy warned that Ukrainians would not forgive the United States if it forced Kyiv to cede Donbas, and said in an Atlantic interview he would rather continue fighting than accept a bad peace. He also stated that Russia would need two years and approximately 800,000 soldiers killed to fully capture Donbas, arguing a frozen conflict already represents a major Ukrainian concession. Zelenskyy separately activated a National Security Council decision on security guarantees, formalizing Kyiv's position on the security architecture it seeks.
Jan 30 – Feb 27, 2026
Underlying stories (11)
Russian State Duma Speaker Volodin called for use of 'weapons of retribution' against Ukraine, while Zelenskyy said Kremlin nuclear threats signal Russian battlefield failures.
Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin stated that Russian parliamentarians are demanding the use of so-called 'weapons of retribution' — widely interpreted as a reference to nuclear or other advanced weapons — against Ukraine. Zelenskyy responded to the Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric by stating that Russia typically escalates such threats when it is failing on the battlefield. European leaders separately debated nuclear deterrence options amid concerns about Russia's nuclear posture and reports of potential deployment of nuclear weapons closer to the EU border. Zelenskyy's comments came amid an exchange of accusations between Moscow and Western capitals over nuclear weapons. Analysts continued to assess the probability of a Russian nuclear test as low but non-trivial.
Jan 30 – Feb 25, 2026
Underlying stories (3)
Ukraine is developing laser and drone-based air defenses to compensate for critical Patriot missile shortages, while calling on allies to accelerate deliveries and provide missile production licenses.
Ukraine is developing low-cost laser and drone-based air defense systems as it faces critical shortages of PAC-3 interceptor missiles for its Patriot systems. Zelenskyy stated that the US has not provided Ukraine with licenses to produce air defense missiles despite years of negotiations, calling for large-scale missile manufacturing to be established in Europe. He called for acceleration of air defense packages at the Ramstein format meeting, particularly Patriot missiles. NATO denied there had been any delay in Patriot missile deliveries, contradicting earlier Ukrainian claims. Lithuania announced it will transfer 30 RBS-70 portable surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine, and Ukraine unveiled a new multi-layer air defense plan targeting interception of at least 95% of incoming missiles and drones.
Jan 30 – Feb 25, 2026
Underlying stories (6)
Russia expanded its strike campaign to systematically target Ukrainian railway infrastructure, with Zelenskyy warning of a 'logistics terror' strategy and ISW confirming the shift in targeting priorities.
President Zelenskyy warned of a Russian 'logistics terror' campaign after a series of strikes on Ukrainian railway infrastructure, ordering military leaders to respond. ISW assessed that Russian forces had expanded their list of priority strike targets beyond the energy grid to include railway and water supply infrastructure, with an increased emphasis on sabotage operations inside Ukraine. Zelenskyy noted that Russian strikes on railway infrastructure occur almost daily, with over 1,200 guided aerial bombs and 2,000 drones deployed in a single week. The campaign is designed to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and degrade the country's ability to move troops and equipment. Ukraine updated its national defense plan for the first time since 2020 in response to the evolving threat environment.
Jan 30 – Feb 23, 2026
Underlying stories (4)
Zelenskyy expressed cautious optimism that the war could end by summer 2026 if Russia demonstrated genuine willingness, while also warning ministers to prepare for three more years of conflict.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that the war could potentially end by summer 2026 if Russia demonstrated genuine willingness to reach a settlement, and accepted a US proposal to host the next round of talks in the United States. He also said the conflict could end within months if negotiations between Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv proceed smoothly. However, the Wall Street Journal reported that Zelenskyy shocked his ministers by telling them to prepare for up to three more years of war, signaling his expectation that the conflict will not end quickly. European intelligence chiefs expressed pessimism at the Munich Security Conference about the likelihood of a peace agreement being reached in 2026. Zelenskyy also declared in a BBC interview that Putin has already started World War Three.
Jan 30 – Feb 23, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
Russia accepted a US request to pause strikes on Kyiv but then ignored Trump's broader energy ceasefire initiative, launching massive attacks on Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure.
Russia initially accepted a US request to halt aerial attacks on Kyiv, though confusion emerged over whether the pause would last two days or a full week — dubbed the 'frost truce' by Italian media. However, Zelenskyy stated that Russia subsequently broke a commitment to halt strikes on energy infrastructure for one week, ignoring a direct request from Trump. Russia launched large-scale strikes on gas and electricity infrastructure across eight regions, wounding dozens including children. Zelenskyy said the attacks would affect Ukraine's approach at the Abu Dhabi negotiations and accused Russia of choosing terror over diplomacy. ISW reported that Russia resumed combined missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure as a sustained campaign.
Jan 29 – Feb 26, 2026
Underlying stories (6)
Trump publicly pressured Zelenskyy to make concessions and told him by phone he wants the war ended within a month, with the next trilateral round set for early March in Abu Dhabi.
US President Trump publicly called on Zelenskyy to act quickly toward a peace settlement, warning he would miss an opportunity if he did not move. Trump told Zelenskyy in a February 25 phone call that he wants the war ended within a month, with the next round of trilateral negotiations scheduled for early March in Abu Dhabi. Trump also claimed to have personally asked Putin not to strike Kyiv and said the US is making 'good progress,' citing deep personal animosity between Putin and Zelenskyy as the primary obstacle. Reports indicated the US was pushing for a peace agreement by March 2026 and simultaneously discussing simultaneous general elections and a referendum in Ukraine as early as May. Zelenskyy confirmed the call and said Ukrainian negotiators would meet US officials to discuss post-war reconstruction and peace framework details.
Jan 29 – Feb 25, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
Zelenskyy said Ukraine could hold elections after two months of ceasefire and security guarantee confirmation, while warning against elections during wartime and saying Russia wants to replace him.
Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine could hold elections after two months of a ceasefire, addressing critics who questioned his legitimacy given that wartime conditions have prevented scheduled elections. He later clarified that elections would only occur after a ceasefire is confirmed and security guarantees are in place. The Financial Times reported Zelenskyy planned to announce an election and referendum schedule on February 24, though he said he had not heard of this plan. Zelenskyy said he has not ruled out running for a second presidential term. In a Piers Morgan interview, he said Russia wants to replace him and questioned whether partners should weigh in on the elections issue.
Jan 29 – Feb 19, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
Zelenskyy proposed an energy ceasefire and said Ukraine would halt strikes on Russian territory if Russia reciprocated, but accused Moscow of responding with escalation instead.
Following Trump's reported request to Putin for a one-week energy ceasefire, Zelenskyy called for Ukraine and Russia to mutually suspend strikes on energy infrastructure. He stated Ukraine is seriously committed to ending the war and ready to refrain from striking Russian territory, but questioned whether Russia shares that intent. Russia responded to the US initiative with drone and missile attacks rather than restraint, according to Zelenskyy. Ukraine separately struck a Russian oil terminal in Krasnodar and an air defense system in Crimea, framing such operations as degrading Russia's war-sustaining capacity. Zelenskyy explained the strategic rationale for Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure as a means of reducing Moscow's ability to sustain the conflict.
Jan 29 – Feb 17, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
Russia insisted Moscow is the only acceptable venue for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, while Zelenskyy invited Putin to Kyiv and said direct contact is essential to resolve territorial questions.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov repeatedly stated that Russia considers Moscow the only acceptable location for a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, while Russia formally invited Zelenskyy to travel to Moscow. Zelenskyy responded by inviting Putin to Kyiv, saying he is ready to meet if Putin 'dares.' Zelenskyy also stated that territorial questions cannot be resolved without direct contact with Putin, underscoring the necessity of such a meeting. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff indicated a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting could occur within weeks, while the Kremlin maintained it sees no basis for such a meeting given what it described as Ukraine's lack of genuine negotiating intent. The prospect of a direct meeting remained remote but was not entirely ruled out by either side.
Jan 28 – Feb 26, 2026
Underlying stories (7)
US officials and analysts identified the fate of Donetsk as the central unresolved issue in peace negotiations, with Russia and Ukraine remaining diametrically opposed on core territorial and political demands.
Secretary of State Rubio identified the Donetsk region as the single most critical remaining issue in negotiations, later narrowing the focus to the roughly one-fifth of Donetsk not yet under Russian control. Zelenskyy described the territorial question as the most problematic element, expressing concern that Trump and Putin had discussed it bilaterally without Ukrainian participation. The Kremlin rejected US claims that only one issue remained, signaling broader demands. ISW assessed that any Ukrainian concession on Donetsk would only lead to further Russian demands, and that Russia's war aims extend beyond territory to broader political and security conditions. Lavrov separately stated Russia had not received the 20-point US-Ukraine peace plan and described revised versions as distortions of the original American draft.
Jan 28 – Feb 20, 2026
Underlying stories (7)
Ukraine confirmed that Starlink terminals used by Russian forces were deactivated, slowing Russian operations and contributing to Ukraine's largest territorial gain since 2023.
Ukraine's Ministry of Defense confirmed in late January that Starlink terminals used by Russian forces had been deactivated, with reports indicating the disruption slowed Russian military operations. Elon Musk subsequently ordered SpaceX employees to use Starlink for everything that could help Ukraine, following a Russian drone breaching Kyiv's air defenses. Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski had publicly accused Musk of enabling Russian war crimes via Starlink access, prompting a public dispute. Ukrainian cyber operators reportedly exploited Russian dependence on Starlink by cutting access and launching a counteroffensive, catching Russian forces off guard. Between February 11–15, Ukrainian forces recaptured 201 square kilometers — the largest territorial gain in approximately two and a half years — with analysts linking the advance in part to the Starlink disruption.
Jan 25 – Feb 27, 2026
Underlying stories (5)
Russian drone and missile attacks killed dozens of Ukrainian civilians in late January and early February, targeting a passenger train, a mineworkers' bus, a maternity hospital, and energy systems.
A Russian drone struck a passenger train in the Kharkiv region on January 24, killing at least five civilians. On February 1, a drone hit a bus carrying mineworkers, killing 15 and injuring seven. A maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia was also struck, wounding at least six. Russia simultaneously continued its campaign against energy infrastructure, plunging Ukrainian cities into darkness and cold. Zelenskyy described the pattern as 'logistics terror' and ordered military leaders to respond to the railway targeting campaign.
Jan 24 – Feb 1, 2026
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On the battlefield, the picture is mixed but notable. Between February 11 and 15, Ukrainian forces recaptured 201 square kilometers — the largest territorial gain in approximately two and a half years — a development analysts linked in part to the deactivation of Starlink terminals used by Russian forces, which degraded their drone coordination and operational tempo. The disruption appears to have caught Russian units off guard and enabled a Ukrainian counteroffensive that provided Kyiv with additional leverage heading into negotiations. However, Russia maintained sustained offensive pressure near Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, and across Donetsk throughout the period, with Ukrainian military experts assessing that Moscow is concentrating resources for a spring offensive aimed at capturing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Russia's aerial campaign has also intensified dramatically: in a single week in early February, Russian forces deployed more than 2,000 drones, 1,200 guided aerial bombs, and 116 missiles. ISW confirmed a deliberate shift in Russian targeting priorities to include railway and water supply infrastructure alongside energy systems — what Zelenskyy termed a "logistics terror" strategy designed to degrade Ukraine's ability to move troops and supplies.
Several interconnected threads are reshaping the broader strategic environment. Russia's de facto absorption of Belarus — assessed by ISW as a form of annexation — raises the prospect of a future northern threat vector against Ukraine, with Zelenskyy warning of new joint military exercises on Belarusian territory. China's role remains ambiguous but increasingly concerning: Xi and Putin held a lengthy video call on February 4 praising bilateral ties, while reports emerged of a Chinese state-owned enterprise exporting rocket ammunition production lines to Belarus, and US officials warned Beijing is quietly sustaining Russia's war economy. European NATO members are responding to the threat environment with new Arctic exercises, doubled troop deployments to Norway, and intensifying debates over nuclear deterrence — including reports that Putin may move nuclear weapons closer to EU borders. Ukraine, meanwhile, is racing to compensate for critical Patriot missile shortages by developing laser and drone-based air defenses, and has announced agreements for the eventual delivery of 150 Gripen and 100 Rafale combat aircraft.
Zelenskyy's own political position has come under unusual scrutiny. A polling snapshot showed parties associated with former military chief Zaluzhnyi, former President Poroshenko, and intelligence chief Budanov outperforming Zelenskyy's party in hypothetical elections. The arrest of former Energy Minister Galushchenko weakened his standing further, and reports of a split within Ukraine's negotiating delegation — between factions associated with intelligence chief Budanov and chief of staff Yermak — were denied by Zelenskyy but not fully dispelled. Ukraine also foiled a Russian-directed assassination plot against senior officials, with ten suspects arrested in Ukraine and Moldova, underscoring the continued threat to Kyiv's leadership. Zelenskyy has said elections could occur two months after a ceasefire is confirmed and security guarantees are in place, and has not ruled out running for a second term.
Looking ahead, the early March Abu Dhabi talks will be the most consequential diplomatic test of the year so far. Whether Russia participates in good faith — or uses the round to further stall — will be a defining signal. The trajectory of the spring military campaign will run in parallel: if Russia launches a major offensive in Donetsk before any ceasefire framework is agreed, it will significantly harden Ukraine's negotiating position and complicate US pressure on Kyiv to make concessions. The durability of the Starlink-enabled Ukrainian territorial gains, the pace of European rearmament, and the evolution of China's material support for Russia are all variables that will shape the conflict's next phase. Most immediately, the question of whether Trump's one-month war-end ambition collides with the structural realities of a conflict in which neither side is prepared to accept the other's core demands will determine whether the current diplomatic surge produces a breakthrough — or simply another round of managed stalemate.
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Ukrainian forces recaptured 201 square kilometers of territory from Russian forces between February 11-15, 2026, marking the largest Ukrainian advance in approximately two and a half years. Analysts have linked the gains in part to the disruption of Starlink access for Russian forces.
News events (14)
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Zelenskyy stated that the outcome of the war remains uncertain but that Ukraine is not losing, and said that in the event of a ceasefire, foreign troops should be positioned close to the front line. He also announced a new round of negotiations with Russia and the US.
News events (5)
The Munich Security Conference convened one year after US Vice President Vance's controversial speech, with European leaders again grappling with the implications of the Trump administration's approach to NATO and transatlantic relations. Analysts described the conference as taking place amid a fundamental rupture in the US-Europe relationship.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's speech at the Munich Security Conference, in which he called for a 'strong' Europe and declared 'we belong together,' drew mixed reactions from European officials and analysts. Some expressed relief that US commitment to allies was reaffirmed, while others, including EU defense politician Strack-Zimmermann, called the speech a 'poisoned declaration of love,' and
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The three-day Munich Security Conference concluded with over a thousand participants, featuring sharp debates over US-Europe relations, Ukraine peace prospects, and European defense autonomy. EU officials expressed skepticism about appointing an EU envoy for Ukraine negotiations.
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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz opened the 62nd Munich Security Conference with a stark warning that the rules-based international order has collapsed and that the gap between Europe and the United States has deepened. Merz called on the United States and European allies to take the shifting geopolitical moment seriously.
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Analysis following the Munich Security Conference described EU-US relations as being in a trust crisis, with the Trump administration having fundamentally altered transatlantic ties. European officials expressed concern about the reliability of US security commitments.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy delivered a major address at the Munich Security Conference, calling Putin a 'slave of war' who consults historical tsars more than living advisers, and warning that the longer the war continues, the more dangerous Putin's evolution becomes. He also stated that Russia loses 156 soldiers for every kilometer of occupied Ukrainian territory in the Donetsk direction.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly acknowledged feeling some pressure from US President Trump over the war settlement, while warning that Ukrainians would not forgive the United States if it forced Kyiv to cede Donbas to Russia. Zelenskyy also described Trump's preferred approach as reaching a peace agreement 'immediately' in a single deal.
News events (4)
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas rejected American criticism of Europe at the Munich Security Conference, saying other countries 'look up to' Europe and dismissing claims of European 'civilisational erasure.' Kallas also called for limits on the size of the Russian army in any peace settlement.
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US Vice President J.D. Vance addressed transatlantic tensions, joking about playing 'bad cop' to Secretary of State Rubio's 'good cop' role, while clarifying that US frustrations with Europe are not rooted in animosity. His remarks came amid ongoing disputes over European defense spending and Ukraine policy.
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US Vice President JD Vance issued sharp remarks calling on European nations to contribute more to their own defense, amid ongoing tensions over burden-sharing between Washington and its European allies.
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US President Donald Trump's newly established Peace Council held its first meeting on February 19, 2026, as part of broader US-led diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.
News events (3)
European states were divided over whether an EU official should attend the inaugural meeting of Donald Trump's 'Peace Council,' reflecting broader tensions between Washington and Brussels over the Ukraine peace process.
News events (1)
Zelenskyy stated that the outcome of the war remains uncertain but that Ukraine is not losing, and said that in the event of a ceasefire, foreign troops should be positioned close to the front line. He also announced a new round of negotiations with Russia and the US.
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Reports indicate Russia may pull out of peace negotiations, with the next round of talks scheduled for March 4-5 described as potentially decisive for reaching a peace agreement. Zelenskyy confirmed the upcoming trilateral round and called for increased pressure on Moscow.
News events (4)
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Putin believes Russia's economy can withstand a long war and is using peace talk overtures to distract the Trump administration, warning that any Ukrainian concession on Donetsk would only lead to further Russian demands.
News events (4)
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russia's strategic goal is to transform Ukraine into a puppet state similar to Belarus. The Kremlin is reportedly seeking to convince the United States and Europe not to agree to security guarantees for Ukraine as part of any peace settlement.
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Russian officials have no genuine desire to halt the invasion and believe they can outmaneuver the United States during peace talks, according to an Associated Press report. The assessment aligns with broader intelligence warnings that Moscow is using negotiations to buy time rather than reach a settlement.
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A spy report assessed that Russia is exploiting peace negotiations as a tool for manipulation and to restore relations with the United States, while having no genuine intention of ending the war in Ukraine.
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Moscow has no timeline for ending the conflict in Ukraine, only objectives it is in the process of fulfilling, pushing back against Western media reports about negotiation deadlines.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced via social media that the United States will approach negotiations on a new offensive arms reduction treaty from a position of strength. The statement signals Washington's intent to pursue a successor agreement to New START on its own terms.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to Bratislava and Budapest, meeting with Slovak PM Fico and Hungarian PM Orbán. Rubio emphasized that the US does not want Europe to be a 'vassal' and reaffirmed Washington's commitment to NATO membership.
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On the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi peace talks, the United States and Russia agreed to resume high-level military-to-military dialogue. The two countries also discussed the possible extension of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty.
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia will continue to observe its moratorium on violating the limits of the New START nuclear arms treaty as long as the United States does the same.
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Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced via social media that the United States will approach negotiations on a new offensive arms reduction treaty from a position of strength. The statement signals Washington's intent to pursue a successor agreement to New START on its own terms.
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A nationwide poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology between January 23–29 found that 61% of Ukrainians trust President Zelenskyy. The survey provides a snapshot of domestic political support for the wartime leader amid ongoing peace negotiations.
News events (1)
A survey by New Image Marketing Group found that parties associated with former Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, former President Petro Poroshenko's European Solidarity, and a party linked to intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov would outperform Zelenskyy's party in hypothetical elections.
News events (2)
A Ukrainian businessman alleged that former Security Service of Ukraine chief Ivan Bakanov had passed bribes to President Zelenskyy, with some funds reportedly flowing through the Presidential Office. The claims added to existing corruption allegations surrounding Zelenskyy's inner circle.
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Ukrainian commentary examined Zelenskyy's close attention to approval ratings and public standing as peace negotiations intensify and his political position faces scrutiny. The analysis noted the tension between wartime leadership demands and the president's apparent sensitivity to domestic political metrics.
News events (5)
The Financial Times reported that the arrest of former Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko has significantly undermined President Zelenskyy's political standing and strengthened his critics. The report suggests the arrest has deepened divisions within Ukraine's political establishment.
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The Economist reported that Ukraine's negotiating delegation has divided into two competing coalitions — a 'Budanov group' and an 'Yermak wing' — with the Yermak-aligned negotiators reportedly less interested in reaching a deal. The split has emerged as Moscow presses Kyiv on territorial concessions in Donetsk.
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President Zelenskyy rejected a report by The Economist alleging internal disagreements within Ukraine's negotiating delegation, calling the narrative a Russian information operation. He insisted the Ukrainian team remains unified in its approach to peace talks.
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Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi gave an interview to the Associated Press revealing that the 2023 counteroffensive failed because President Zelenskyy interfered with military decisions. Separately, Russian-sourced reports claimed Zaluzhnyi was wounded in 2023 during a call from Zelenskyy's office.
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A former Soviet adviser warned that a coup is being prepared in Ukraine to overthrow President Zelenskyy as his political position weakens under war pressures and diplomatic strains.
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President Zelenskyy publicly stated that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in four years of war with Russia. The figure represents one of the most specific official disclosures of Ukrainian battlefield fatalities since the full-scale invasion began.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Kyiv on February 5, 2026, where the two leaders signed a letter of intent for joint drone production between Ukrainian and Polish companies. Zelenskyy said the partnership would leverage lessons learned from the war with Russia.
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President Zelenskyy disclosed that Ukraine is mobilizing more than 30,000 soldiers per month but acknowledged that Russia's mobilization rate is higher, underscoring the manpower challenge facing Kyiv.
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President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine has reached agreements with international partners for the delivery of 150 Gripen and 100 Rafale combat aircraft. The new fighters are intended to significantly bolster Ukraine's air power capabilities.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy signed a decree allowing individuals aged 60 and older to sign military service contracts, with initial contracts set for one year and the option to extend during martial law. The measure targets specialists, veterans, and personnel for rear, technical, training, and staff roles.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy visited the newly launched Quantum Frontline Industries joint venture in Germany, where the first Linza 3.0 UAVs were produced and handed over to him. Germany and Ukraine plan to deliver at least 10,000 drones to the Ukrainian army by end of year.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping made a statement on Ukraine peace negotiations as German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, visiting Beijing, urged China to use its influence to help end the war. Merz expressed confidence that Beijing can exert meaningful pressure on Moscow.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a video call on February 4, 2026, lasting nearly ninety minutes, in which they praised their bilateral relationship and described it as a stabilizing factor in world affairs. The call took place on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi peace talks.
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China announced aid pledges to Ukraine while US officials warned that Beijing is quietly supporting Russia's war effort. The contradictory signals from China have complicated diplomatic efforts and raised questions about Beijing's true role in the conflict.
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A report citing Japanese media revealed evidence that a Chinese state-owned enterprise exported a large-scale rocket ammunition production line to Belarus, Russia's close ally, potentially contradicting Beijing's stated position of non-involvement in the Ukraine war. The findings are expected to intensify US and European pressure on China.
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The European Union Council approved the legal framework for a €90 billion financial assistance loan to Ukraine, with President Zelenskyy thanking the EU and expressing hope for rapid disbursement. The development came despite earlier reports of Hungarian opposition to the package.
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German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that agreeing on a date for Ukraine's EU accession, as demanded by President Zelenskyy, is a realistic prospect. Zelenskyy separately expressed caution about talk of Ukraine joining the EU by 2027.
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Hungary has blocked a previously agreed €90 billion EU loan intended to stabilize Ukraine's war-strained finances, according to the Financial Times, creating a new obstacle to European financial support for Kyiv.
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German newspaper Die Welt reported that Ukraine may be willing to accept territorial concessions as part of a peace settlement in exchange for a fast-tracked path to European Union membership.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with members of the European Parliament's United for Ukraine group, calling for a clear timeline for Ukraine's EU accession and urging continued European unity and support. Zelenskyy warned that without a firm EU membership guarantee, Putin would continue to exploit uncertainty.
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President Zelenskyy addressed the European Parliament in Brussels via video on the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, expressing gratitude for EU financial support and reiterating that Ukraine's EU membership is critical. He also called for a clear accession timeline.
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Reports indicate that Russia is planning a new military offensive in Ukraine while US President Trump is adjusting his negotiating approach to increase pressure for an end to the war. The developments come amid ongoing trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi.
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The Financial Times reported that Russian forces have suffered more than 325,000 casualties in Ukraine, with the sharp rise in losses slowing the pace of advance and casting doubt on Putin's strategic objectives.
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Ukrainian military experts assessed that Russian forces are concentrating resources for a spring offensive with at least two main objectives: capturing the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The analysis came amid reports of Russian force buildup along multiple axes.
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Fighting near Pokrovsk intensified with reports of an entire Russian company being wiped out during an attempted advance. Russian losses continued to rise while Putin was reported to be preparing a new offensive.
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The Institute for the Study of War's February 25 assessment found no evidence of Ukrainian forces operating within Pokrovsk since late January 2025, suggesting Russian forces have consolidated control in the area. The report also tracked ongoing Russian offensive pressure across multiple frontline axes.
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President Zelenskyy appointed Oleh Luhovskyi as acting head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). The appointment follows ongoing leadership changes within Ukraine's security and intelligence apparatus.
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President Zelenskyy ordered a purge of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), stating that those serving interests other than Ukraine's must be removed from their positions. He tasked security officials with identifying and dismissing personnel with questionable loyalties.
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Ukraine announced the arrest of ten suspects in Ukraine and Moldova in connection with a Russian-directed plot to assassinate senior Ukrainian officials, with Russia allegedly offering bounties of up to $100,000 per target.
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CNN reported that Russian agents rented an apartment near the Ukrainian Presidential Office as part of a plot to assassinate Zelenskyy, describing his elimination as a key element of Russia's plan for full occupation of Ukraine. Russia has made several assassination attempts against Zelenskyy since the start of the full-scale invasion.
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Reports indicate that Russia's real inflation rate significantly exceeds official figures published by the Kremlin, with food prices rising sharply, while analysts say Russian authorities have attempted to conceal the broader economic consequences of the war, Western sanctions, and poor policy decisions.
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A new analysis finds that nearly four years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war's economic and social toll on Russian citizens has grown substantially. The report examines how wartime pressures are affecting everyday life inside Russia.
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Oil and gas exports have sustained Russia's war finances, but revenues are under increasing pressure as the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion approaches. The decline raises questions about Russia's long-term capacity to fund the war.
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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Kyiv, where discussions included plans for NATO member states willing to send armed forces, aircraft, and naval support to Ukraine immediately after a peace agreement is reached. The visit came as the Kremlin had broken its promise to refrain from striking energy infrastructure.
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Plans to deploy a peacekeeping force in Ukraine have stalled after allies acknowledged that any deployment would require Vladimir Putin's approval, with a growing number of 'Coalition of the Willing' members expressing reservations.
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Several prominent European leaders traveled to Kyiv on February 24 to mark the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with commemorative events including a prayer service at Saint Sophia Cathedral. Zelenskyy used the occasion to reaffirm Ukraine's commitment to fighting for peace and justice.
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On the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukrainians and international observers reflected on four years of war marked by massive human losses, displacement, and destruction with no end yet in sight. Analysts noted that despite multiple diplomatic efforts, a durable peace settlement remains elusive.
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The fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 was marked by international commemorations, visits by foreign leaders to Kyiv, and continued fighting on the front lines. The occasion prompted reflection on the war's human cost and uncertain path to peace.
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President Zelenskyy addressed the European Parliament in Brussels via video on the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, expressing gratitude for EU financial support and reiterating that Ukraine's EU membership is critical. He also called for a clear accession timeline.
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The European Parliament held an emergency session in Brussels on the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion, with all major political groups expressing support for Ukraine except the Europe of Sovereign Nations group. The session underscored continued broad EU legislative backing for Kyiv.
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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Kyiv, where discussions included plans for NATO member states willing to send armed forces, aircraft, and naval support to Ukraine immediately after a peace agreement is reached. The visit came as the Kremlin had broken its promise to refrain from striking energy infrastructure.
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NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Kyiv and addressed the Ukrainian Rada, stating that reaching a peace agreement with Russia will require difficult decisions. Rutte's visit came amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations and continued Russian attacks.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine has fulfilled all necessary requirements for NATO membership but acknowledged that the United States does not currently support Ukraine's accession to the Alliance.
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Zelenskyy posted on X that he is aware of a new document concerning NATO and Russia that American and possibly some European officials are discussing, raising concerns about negotiations being conducted without Ukraine's full involvement.
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Reports indicate Russia is expanding military bases near its border with Finland, a NATO member, raising concerns about Moscow's intentions in the High North. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also issued new threats amid the heightened tensions.
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UK Defence Secretary John Healey announced Britain would double its troop numbers in Norway as part of efforts to deter Russia in the Arctic and High North. A major Joint Expeditionary Force exercise called 'Lion Protector' was announced, deploying air, land, and naval forces across the region in 2026.
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Norwegian officials stated they cannot rule out a Russian invasion, while noting that Russia does not have the same ambitions toward Norway as it has toward Ukraine or other former Soviet territories. Oslo's warning came amid broader European concerns about Russian military expansion.
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European leaders are increasingly discussing nuclear deterrence options amid concerns about Russia's nuclear posture, with reports suggesting Putin may deploy nuclear weapons closer to the EU border following the Oreshnik missile deployment.
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European officials raised alarms over Russia's ongoing interception of communications from European satellites, a capability Moscow has been developing and deploying since the start of the full-scale invasion. Analysts note the practice is not new but has intensified.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy signed expanded sanctions targeting vessels used by Russia to transport oil and petroleum products from ports including Novorossiysk, Ust-Luga, and Primorsk.
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President Zelenskyy stated that Russia would require at least two years and approximately 800,000 soldiers killed to fully capture the Donbas region, arguing that a frozen conflict along current lines already represents a major Ukrainian concession. He also said that Russia added over 120 vessels to its shadow oil fleet in 2025.
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Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán declared Ukraine an enemy after Kyiv called on the EU to halt cheap Russian energy imports, while Foreign Minister Szijjártó dismissed European leaders accompanying Zelenskyy to Washington as 'babysitters.' The remarks deepened Hungary's rift with Ukraine and the broader EU.
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President Zelenskyy announced a new package of sanctions targeting foreign companies that supply critical components used in Russian drones and missiles. The measures aim to disrupt Russia's ability to circumvent Western sanctions through third-party manufacturers.
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President Zelenskyy called on European governments to impose sanctions on Russia's nuclear energy sector, Rosatom, and Russian citizens and their relatives living in Europe, arguing that existing measures remain insufficient.
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The plane carrying US Special Envoy Steve Wittkoff and Jared Kushner departed Geneva following the latest round of negotiations, as Vice President Vance acknowledged that peace talks have proven significantly more difficult than initially anticipated. Vance said Trump had ordered negotiators to try to 'end the killing,' but key gaps between the parties remain.
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Media reports described the Geneva negotiations as having reached an impasse and becoming 'political theater,' while Zelenskyy acknowledged progress on military ceasefire mechanisms but said political issues — particularly regarding Donbas — remain unresolved. Zelenskyy identified Russia's political demands as the main obstacle to peace.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described the Geneva talks as productive on military issues but 'difficult and tense' overall, accusing Russia of stalling while announcing further contacts with Russia and the US within ten days. Ukrainian negotiator Umerov also confirmed progress had been made but said details could not be disclosed.
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CNN reported that trilateral Russia-US-Ukraine negotiations have achieved gradual but significant progress in defining how a ceasefire would function, though key political issues remain unresolved.
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Russia carried out a large-scale overnight attack involving 420 drones and 39 missiles against Ukraine, according to President Zelenskyy, on the eve of negotiations with the US in Geneva. Ukraine condemned the strike as a demonstration of Russia's lack of genuine commitment to peace.
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The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces have expanded their list of priority strike targets beyond Ukraine's energy grid to include railway and water supply infrastructure. ISW also noted an increased emphasis on sabotage operations inside Ukraine.
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Russian forces attacked Ukraine with more than 2,000 drones, 1,200 guided aerial bombs, and 116 missiles in a single week, according to Ukrainian officials. President Zelenskyy highlighted the scale of the bombardment, noting that Russian strikes on railway infrastructure occur almost daily.
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President Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian intelligence reports indicate Russia is preparing to launch massive new attacks against Ukraine, raising alarm about an escalation in strikes.
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Russia launched a major attack involving nearly 300 drones and 50 missiles against Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure, residential buildings, and rail lines, killing at least one person and wounding eight including a child.
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Russia carried out a large-scale overnight attack involving 420 drones and 39 missiles against Ukraine, according to President Zelenskyy, on the eve of negotiations with the US in Geneva. Ukraine condemned the strike as a demonstration of Russia's lack of genuine commitment to peace.
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President Zelenskyy announced new sanctions against 29 Russian individuals and 15 organizations, and separately said Ukraine would expand sanctions against Belarusian leader Lukashenko to include his sons and inner circle. Zelenskyy noted the Belarus sanctions were not coordinated with the US and that further legal work is ongoing.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy signed a decree imposing sanctions against Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko, citing Belarus's continued support for Russia's war against Ukraine.
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President Zelenskyy warned that Moscow and Minsk are again discussing joint military exercises on Belarusian territory, raising concerns about a potential new threat vector. He also stated that both Ukraine and Belarus should ultimately become EU members, though he acknowledged the choice belongs to Belarusians.
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US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met Russian Presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Florida on January 31, 2026, describing the discussions as fruitful and constructive ahead of the next Abu Dhabi round of talks.
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Ukrainian, US, and Russian delegations convened in Abu Dhabi for a new round of trilateral peace talks, with Ukraine's National Security Council Secretary Umerov describing the discussions as 'substantive and productive' and focused on concrete steps. Zelenskyy announced that a prisoner of war exchange is expected soon as a result of the talks.
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US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced that Ukraine and Russia agreed during the Abu Dhabi talks to exchange 314 prisoners of war, the first such exchange in approximately five months. The exchange was subsequently carried out, with 157 Ukrainians returned from Russian captivity.
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On the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi peace talks, the United States and Russia agreed to resume high-level military-to-military dialogue. The two countries also discussed the possible extension of the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty.
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President Zelenskyy revealed that Russia and Ukraine reached a general agreement on a ceasefire monitoring mechanism during the Abu Dhabi talks, though significant political issues remain unresolved. Zelenskyy described the military track discussions as substantive while acknowledging broader difficulties.
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Zelenskyy made a firm statement that Ukraine cannot simply hand control of Donbas to Russia, emphasizing the issue goes beyond territory to questions of sovereignty and the fate of people living there.
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President Zelenskyy received a major award at the Munich Security Conference and, in talks with American representatives, rejected any withdrawal from Donbas while demanding 20-year security guarantees as a condition for peace.
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Zelenskyy stated that Trump is applying disproportionate pressure on Ukraine and that the Ukrainian people would never accept a peace deal requiring unilateral withdrawals or concessions. He said Russia agreed to only a one-day ceasefire for elections rather than the 60 days Ukraine requested.
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President Zelenskyy signed into force a National Security and Defense Council decision on security guarantees for Ukraine, a move seen as formalizing Kyiv's position on the security architecture it seeks in any peace settlement.
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In an interview with The Atlantic, Zelenskyy stated he would rather continue fighting than accept a bad peace agreement, saying Ukraine will not lose and that he prefers war to a poor deal. He also suggested the conflict could end within months if negotiations proceed smoothly.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated he is prepared to meet Vladimir Putin directly but ruled out any territorial concessions, while calling on the US to exert greater pressure on Moscow. He also expressed belief that Ukraine has a chance to end the war before autumn.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Kyiv is seeking long-term US security guarantees of at least 30 years as part of any peace settlement framework.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy publicly acknowledged feeling some pressure from US President Trump over the war settlement, while warning that Ukrainians would not forgive the United States if it forced Kyiv to cede Donbas to Russia. Zelenskyy also described Trump's preferred approach as reaching a peace agreement 'immediately' in a single deal.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated at the Munich Security Conference that Ukraine is seeking security guarantees of 20 to 30 years, while the current US proposal offers 15 years. The gap in the duration of security commitments represents one of the outstanding differences in the US-Ukraine peace framework negotiations.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in an interview with Axios that the Ukrainian people would reject any peace agreement that could be characterized as a victory for Putin. Zelenskyy reiterated that security guarantees must come before any territorial discussions.
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President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is prepared to reach a settlement to end the war but will not accept any agreement that gives Russia an opportunity for rapid military recovery, outlining conditions for any acceptable peace deal.
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Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin stated that Russian parliamentarians are demanding the use of so-called 'weapons of retribution' — widely interpreted as a reference to nuclear or other advanced weapons — against Ukraine to achieve the goals of the military operation.
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European leaders are increasingly discussing nuclear deterrence options amid concerns about Russia's nuclear posture, with reports suggesting Putin may deploy nuclear weapons closer to the EU border following the Oreshnik missile deployment.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded to the Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric, stating that Russia typically escalates such threats when it is failing on the battlefield. Zelenskyy's comments came amid an exchange of accusations between Moscow and Western capitals over nuclear weapons.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy convened senior military officers to discuss deficiencies in air defense systems and identify areas for improvement. NATO denied there had been any delay in Patriot missile deliveries, contradicting earlier Ukrainian claims about interceptor shortages.
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Ukraine is developing low-cost laser and drone-based air defense systems as it faces critical shortages of PAC-3 interceptor missiles for its Patriot systems, according to reports. The Financial Times reported that Kyiv's Patriot missile stocks reached dangerously low levels in early 2023 and remain a persistent vulnerability.
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President Zelenskyy stated that the key task for Ukrainian Defense Minister Fedorov at the Ramstein format meeting is to accelerate air defense assistance packages for Ukraine, particularly Patriot missiles.
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Zelenskyy stated that despite years of negotiations and promises, the United States has not provided Ukraine with licenses to produce air defense missiles, calling for large-scale missile manufacturing to be established in Europe.
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Ukraine has announced a new defense plan for the fifth year of the war, centered on building a multi-layered air defense system designed to intercept at least 95% of incoming missiles and drones. The plan reflects lessons learned from sustained Russian aerial bombardment.
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Lithuania announced it will transfer 30 RBS-70 portable surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine, according to Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Karunas. The transfer is intended to strengthen Ukraine's air defense capabilities.
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President Zelenskyy warned of a Russian 'logistics terror' campaign after a series of strikes on Ukrainian railway infrastructure, ordering military leaders to respond. The attacks represent a shift in Russian targeting strategy aimed at disrupting Ukrainian supply lines.
News events (1)
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces have expanded their list of priority strike targets beyond Ukraine's energy grid to include railway and water supply infrastructure. ISW also noted an increased emphasis on sabotage operations inside Ukraine.
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President Zelenskyy signed a decree approving an updated national defense plan for Ukraine, replacing the previous plan that had been in effect since 2020. The update reflects changes in the security environment and ongoing war conditions.
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Russian forces attacked Ukraine with more than 2,000 drones, 1,200 guided aerial bombs, and 116 missiles in a single week, according to Ukrainian officials. President Zelenskyy highlighted the scale of the bombardment, noting that Russian strikes on railway infrastructure occur almost daily.
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Senior European intelligence officials expressed pessimism at the Munich Security Conference about the likelihood of a peace agreement being reached in 2026 to end Russia's war against Ukraine, according to a Reuters exclusive.
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Zelenskyy stated he has accepted the US proposal for another round of negotiations and said the conflict could end within months if talks between Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv proceed smoothly, though he expressed uncertainty about whether the Russian delegation would attend.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that the war could potentially end by summer 2026 if Russia demonstrated genuine willingness to reach a settlement. He accepted a US proposal to host the next round of talks in the United States and said the next step would be a territorial agreement.
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According to the Wall Street Journal, Zelenskyy shocked his ministers by telling them to prepare for up to three more years of war, signaling his expectation that the conflict will not end quickly despite ongoing peace negotiations.
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In a wide-ranging BBC interview, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy declared that Putin has already started World War Three, arguing Russia seeks to impose a different way of life on the world. He also addressed territorial concessions, the war's trajectory, and his own political position.
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Russia officially accepted a US request to halt aerial attacks on Kyiv, though confusion emerged over whether the pause would last two days or a full week. The limited ceasefire was framed as a goodwill gesture amid ongoing peace negotiations.
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A week-long pause in Russian bombardment of Kyiv was dubbed the 'frost truce' by Italian media, with US President Trump claiming credit for convincing Putin to halt strikes. Despite US optimism, peace negotiations continued to struggle with key unresolved issues.
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Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that Russia broke a commitment to halt strikes on energy infrastructure for one week, ignoring a request from Trump, and said the massive Russian attack would affect the Ukrainian delegation's approach at the Abu Dhabi negotiations. Zelenskyy accused Russia of choosing terror and escalation over diplomacy.
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President Zelenskyy stated that Russia responded to a new US initiative for an energy ceasefire with aerial attacks, including drones and missiles. Zelenskyy called for stronger pressure on Russia and clear security guarantees as the real path to ending the killing.
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Russia launched large-scale strikes on Ukraine's gas and electricity infrastructure, causing damage across eight regions and wounding dozens of people including children, according to President Zelenskyy.
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The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia resumed its combined missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, continuing a pattern of targeting civilian systems alongside frontline military operations.
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US President Donald Trump stated that Ukraine and Russia may be able to reach an agreement even without the involvement of US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Trump also claimed to have personally asked Putin not to strike Kyiv.
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US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that Washington is making 'good progress' with both sides in the Ukraine conflict, calling it the first time he has said so. Trump acknowledged that deep personal animosity between Putin and Zelenskyy remains the primary obstacle to ending the war.
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US President Donald Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a phone call on February 25 that he wants the war ended within a month, with the next round of trilateral negotiations scheduled for early March in Abu Dhabi. Zelenskyy confirmed the call and said Ukrainian negotiators would meet with US officials on Thursday to discuss post-war reconstruction and peace framework details.
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American and Ukrainian negotiators have discussed an ambitious goal of reaching a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement by March 2026, with Washington also pushing for simultaneous general elections and a referendum in Ukraine as early as May. Reports indicate the US wants the war resolved before its attention shifts to domestic midterm election preparations.
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US President Donald Trump publicly called on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to make concessions and act quickly toward a peace settlement, warning he would miss an opportunity if he did not move. Reports indicated the Trump administration was increasing pressure on Ukraine to agree to concessions ahead of new negotiations.
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Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine could hold elections after two months of a ceasefire, addressing Russian and other critics who have questioned his legitimacy as president given that wartime conditions have prevented scheduled elections. Russia has continued to claim Zelenskyy lacks democratic legitimacy.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated he is thinking about whether to run for a second presidential term, saying he has not yet made a concrete decision but has not excluded the possibility.
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President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine will hold elections only after a ceasefire is confirmed and security guarantees are in place, responding to questions about the legitimacy of his continued rule under martial law. Western media reported that Kyiv is preparing for possible elections following a US ultimatum.
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The Financial Times reported that Zelenskyy plans to announce a presidential election and peace referendum schedule on February 24, though Zelenskyy himself said he had not heard of this plan. Ukraine's Rada was reportedly preparing legal changes to enable wartime elections in March and April.
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In an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan, Zelenskyy said he believes Russia wants to replace him and questioned whether Ukraine's partners should weigh in on the elections issue. He reiterated that holding elections during wartime would be inappropriate.
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Zelenskyy called for an energy ceasefire and stated Ukraine is ready to suspend strikes on Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow agrees to reciprocate, following Trump's reported request to Putin for a one-week energy ceasefire.
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President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is seriously committed to ending the war and is ready to refrain from striking Russian territory, but questioned whether Russia shares that intent after Moscow launched a massive bombardment on the same day as the Geneva talks.
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President Zelenskyy stated that Russia responded to a new US initiative for an energy ceasefire with aerial attacks, including drones and missiles. Zelenskyy called for stronger pressure on Russia and clear security guarantees as the real path to ending the killing.
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President Zelenskyy explained the strategic rationale behind Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure during a meeting with faculty and students at the Kyiv Aviation Institute. He framed the strikes as a means of degrading Russia's capacity to sustain its war effort.
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Ukraine's General Staff confirmed successful strikes on a Russian oil terminal in the Krasnodar region and a Russian air defense system in occupied Crimea, along with additional undisclosed targets.
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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Russia considers Moscow the only acceptable venue for a potential meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, while Russia also formally invited Zelenskyy to travel to Moscow for peace talks. Zelenskyy responded by inviting Putin to Kyiv instead, saying he is ready to meet if Putin dares.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that territorial issues cannot be resolved without direct contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin, underscoring the need for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that key territorial questions cannot be resolved without a personal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while reiterating Ukraine's openness to negotiations in any format with Russia and the US.
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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow sees no basis for a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting, claiming Ukraine has shown no genuine intent to negotiate, while leaving open the possibility of a trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia summit.
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US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff indicated that a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy could occur within weeks, calling the war 'senseless.' A new round of Ukraine-Russia-US peace negotiations is expected within days, according to Ukrainian military intelligence chief Budanov.
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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Putin's position on the location of a potential meeting with Zelenskyy has not changed, while also indicating Moscow has 'some understanding' of the date and place for the next round of negotiations.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio identified the unresolved territorial question of Ukraine's Donetsk region as the single most critical remaining issue in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations.
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Analysis by Politico and Russian media identified three core issues blocking progress in US-mediated peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, with Moscow and Kyiv remaining diametrically opposed. The fate of Donbas was highlighted as the most difficult and 'very hard' issue to overcome, according to Secretary Rubio.
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Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia had not received the 20-point US-Ukraine peace plan through official or unofficial channels, and described subsequent revised versions of the document as attempts to distort the original American draft. Lavrov also said understandings reached at the Anchorage summit remain on the table.
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The Institute for the Study of War reported that the Kremlin rejected assertions by Trump administration officials that only one issue remained unresolved in peace negotiations, signaling that Russia is preparing to present broader demands at upcoming talks.
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The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Putin believes Russia's economy can withstand a long war and is using peace talk overtures to distract the Trump administration, warning that any Ukrainian concession on Donetsk would only lead to further Russian demands.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated at Munich that Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations have narrowed to focus on the roughly one-fifth of Donetsk region not yet under Russian control, while also saying the US does not know whether Russia is serious about ending the war. Rubio added that the US will only negotiate under fair conditions for Ukraine.
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A new ISW assessment indicates that Russian officials continue to signal that obstacles to a peace deal go beyond territorial questions, suggesting Moscow's war aims extend to broader political and security demands that would be difficult for Ukraine to accept.
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Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski publicly accused Elon Musk of profiting from war crimes by allowing Russian forces to use Starlink terminals in Ukraine, calling on Musk to cut off Russian access. Musk responded with personal insults, escalating the public dispute.
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Ukraine's Ministry of Defense confirmed that Starlink satellite internet terminals being used by Russian forces inside Ukraine have been deactivated. Reports indicated that the disruption has slowed the pace of Russian military operations on the front line.
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Following a Russian strike drone breaching Ukrainian air defenses and flying over Kyiv's government quarter in late January 2026, Elon Musk ordered SpaceX employees to use Starlink for everything that could help Ukraine. The move also reportedly cut Russian forces' access to Starlink, sharply reducing their drone streaming capability.
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Ukrainian forces recaptured 201 square kilometers of territory from Russian forces between February 11-15, 2026, marking the largest Ukrainian advance in approximately two and a half years. Analysts have linked the gains in part to the disruption of Starlink access for Russian forces.
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A report detailed how Ukrainian hackers and cyber operators exploited Russian military dependence on Starlink by cutting satellite access and then launching a counteroffensive, catching Russian forces off guard. Moscow has sought to downplay the significance of the operation.
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A Russian drone struck a Ukrainian passenger train in the Kharkiv region, killing at least five civilians and wounding several others. The attack occurred amid renewed diplomatic efforts to end the war.
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Sustained Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have left residents of major Ukrainian cities facing severe cold and power outages after nearly four years of full-scale invasion. The campaign has disrupted normal life across the country as temperatures drop sharply.
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President Zelenskyy warned of a Russian 'logistics terror' campaign after a series of strikes on Ukrainian railway infrastructure, ordering military leaders to respond. The attacks represent a shift in Russian targeting strategy aimed at disrupting Ukrainian supply lines.
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A Russian drone strike hit a bus carrying mineworkers in Ukraine on February 1, 2026, killing 15 people and injuring seven others, according to emergency services.
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A Russian strike hit a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia, wounding at least six people, as bombardments intensified across Ukraine ahead of new trilateral peace negotiations.
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